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Table 4. Exit Poll Survey Results Age (in years) 18–24 25–29 30–39 40–49 50–64 65 or older
9% 7% 16% 16% 30% 22%
Voted for candidate A 65% 54% 51% 54% 47% 47%
Voted for candidate B 31% 43% 46% 44% 52% 52%
Answer these questions about the chart described above:
If a respondent is randomly selected from the database, what is the probability that that person is among those who voted for candidate A?
If a respondent is randomly selected from the database, what is the probability that that person is among those who voted for candidate A and aged 40–49 years?
If a respondent is randomly selected from the database, what is the probability that that person is among those who voted for candidate B or aged 25–29 years?
If 1,000 more voters were surveyed, what would have been the expected number of voters from this group who were 50–64 years?
If 1,000 more voters were surveyed, what would have been the expected number of voters from this group who were 25–29 years or who voted for candidate B
If 1,000 more voters were surveyed, would it have been more likely to poll a 50–64-year-old candidate A supporter than a 30–39-year-old candidate B supporter? How can you tell?
1. The probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for candidate A is 47% (the percentage of those who voted for candidate A across all age groups).
2. The probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for candidate A and is aged 40-49 years is 16% (the percentage of those who voted for candidate A and are aged 40-49 years).
3. The probability that a randomly selected respondent voted for candidate B or is aged 25-29 years is 50% (the sum of the percentage of those who voted for candidate B and are aged 25-29 years).
4. If 1,000 more voters were surveyed, the expected number of voters who were 50-64 years would be 300 (30% of 1,000).
5. If 1,000 more voters were surveyed, the expected number of voters who were 25-29 years or who voted for candidate B would be 473 (43% of 1,000).
6. It would have been more likely to poll a 50-64-year-old candidate A supporter than a 30-39-year-old candidate B supporter because the percentage of 50-64-year-olds who voted for candidate A (47%) is higher than the percentage of 30-39-year-olds who voted for candidate B (46%).