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Simulation to Predict Probability
Suppose a basketball player typically makes five out of eight foul shots.
Question 1
How could a single foul shot be simulated?
Responses
A Place three red marbles to represent as shot made and five blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.Place three red marbles to represent as shot made and five blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.
B Place five red marbles to represent as shot made and three blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.Place five red marbles to represent as shot made and three blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.
C Place three red marbles to represent as shot made and three blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.Place three red marbles to represent as shot made and three blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.
D Place five red marbles to represent as shot made and five blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.Place five red marbles to represent as shot made and five blue marbles to represent a shot missed in a bag. Randomly pull a marble out of the bag to represent one attempt at a foul shot.
Question 2
How could you predict the probability of the player making at least one shot out of 3 foul shot attempts?
Responses
A Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
B Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
C Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
D Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.