Johanna's basketball team is down 1 point with no time remaining on the game clock. She is fouled and gets to shoot 2 free throws. If she is a 60% free throw shooter which is the most likely outcome.

Question

Johanna's basketball team is down 1 point with no time remaining on the game clock. She is fouled and gets to shoot 2 free throws. If she is a 60% free throw shooter which is the most likely outcome.

Answer 1

prob(lose game) = (.4)(.4) = .16

prob(win the game) = (.6)(.6) = .36

third prob, they will tie the game
prob(tie) = .4(.6) + .6(.4) = .48
notice they add up to the correctly anticipated 1

so that is the most likely outcome, they would go to overtime and
who knows what happens then