As a reporter or writer, which of the following opinion polls should I trust?
a. a poll with a sample drawn from people who volunteer for online polls.
b. a poll where votes cast via a website, text message or 900 number.
c. a poll conducted only in urban areas that claims to represent the entire country.
d. A poll with a sample size of 500 or more that broadly represents targeted groups.
I think the answer is d, but I'm not sure. Thanks.
I'll be happy to check what YOU think.
I agree — d.
As a reporter or writer, it is important to understand the methodology behind opinion polls to determine their reliability. While no poll is perfect, there are certain factors to consider when assessing the trustworthiness of a poll. Let's assess the options you've provided:
a. A poll with a sample drawn from people who volunteer for online polls: This type of poll may not be reliable since the sample is self-selected, meaning that individuals choose to participate rather than being randomly selected. People who choose to volunteer for online polls may not represent the wider population accurately, leading to potential bias.
b. A poll where votes are cast via a website, text message, or 900 number: Similar to option a, polls conducted through these methods generally suffer from a self-selection bias. Only those who actively participate are included, which may not accurately reflect the opinions of the wider population.
c. A poll conducted only in urban areas that claims to represent the entire country: A poll conducted solely in urban areas cannot claim to represent the entire country accurately. Rural areas and other demographic groups might be excluded, leading to limited representation and potential bias.
d. A poll with a sample size of 500 or more that broadly represents targeted groups: This option provides the most promising approach. A larger sample size generally yields more reliable results. Moreover, a poll that broadly represents targeted groups implies that it includes diverse demographics, which is crucial for capturing a comprehensive understanding of public opinion.
In conclusion, option d, a poll with a sample size of 500 or more that broadly represents targeted groups, is generally the most trustworthy choice for a reporter or writer. However, it is always important to look for additional factors, such as the reputation and track record of the polling organization, the timing and wording of the poll questions, and the transparency of the methodology, to further assess the reliability of any particular poll.