# introduction to quantitaive methods

the following model is often used to measure the spread of an infectious disease. suppose that at the beginning of period 1 the population consists of 5 diseased people. during any period, there is a 0.05 chance that a given infective person will encounter a particular diseased person. if an infective encounters a susceptible there is a 0.5 chance that the susceptible will contract the disease. an infective lives an average of 10 periods to model this we assume there is a 0.10 probability that an infective dies during thee period. model the evolution of thee population over 100 periods and use your results to answer what the probability that the population wwill die out

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