This would be theoretical probability, as Mark is asking for the likelihood of landing on yellow based on a predetermined set of outcomes. The probability of landing on yellow next would be the same as the overall probability of landing on yellow, which would be 4 out of 26, or 4/26. rephrase written like a 8th grader shorten

If Mark asks what is the chance of landing on yellow next, it would be the same as the chances of landing on yellow overall, which is 4 out of 26, or 4/26.