Simulation to Predict Probability
Suppose a basketball player typically makes five out of eight foul shots.
How could you predict the probability of the player making at least one shot out of 3 foul shot attempts?
Responses
A Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
B Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
C Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of failures and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
D Carry out 30 trials where 3 marbles are randomly pulled out of the bag with replacement. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
B Carry out 30 trials where a marble is randomly pulled out of the bag. Count the number of successes and divide by 30 to estimate the probability of making at least one shot out of 3 foul shouts.
This option is correct because in each trial, the player's success (making at least one shot out of 3) is considered a success, so counting the number of successes in 30 trials and dividing by 30 will give an estimate of the probability.