b. Write a short note on qualitative forecasting methods
Qualitative forecasting methods are used when historical data is either unavailable or not reliable enough to make accurate predictions about the future. These methods rely on expert opinions, market research, surveys, and personal judgment to estimate future outcomes.
One common qualitative forecasting method is the Delphi method, where a panel of experts is gathered to provide their independent opinions on a particular topic or outcome. The opinions are then collected, summarized, and redistributed to the experts for further review and feedback. This iterative process continues until a consensus is reached on the most likely future scenario.
Another qualitative method is market research, which involves collecting and analyzing data about consumer preferences, market trends, competitor strategies, and other relevant information. This data is then used to make informed predictions about future demand and market conditions.
Surveys and interviews are also commonly used to gather qualitative data for forecasting. These methods involve directly asking individuals or groups about their opinions, preferences, and future plans. The data collected through surveys and interviews can provide valuable insights and help in making informed forecasts.
Overall, qualitative forecasting methods are useful when there is a lack of historical data or when there are significant uncertainties and subjective factors that need to be considered. These methods rely on human judgment and expertise to make predictions and can be particularly effective in situations where future outcomes are influenced by factors that cannot be easily quantified or measured.