Numbers Don’t Lie--Or Do They?1 When companies want to market products, they often use numbers in their campaigns. Statements that include numbers tend to sound like "cold, hard facts," while those that do not are more likely to be viewed as opinions or unproven claims. Consider the following two statements about a new brand of toothpaste: 1) We think you’ll agree the minty taste is great. 2) Three out of every four people surveyed said they enjoyed the fresh minty taste. The second seems more compelling, probably because there is a popular notion that “numbers don’t lie.”2 Yet statistics—information presented in number form—are notorious for telling some of the biggest falsehoods and half-truths of all. Depending on how statistics are presented, they can cause people to reach incorrect conclusions and develop mistaken ideas about an issue. Advertisers can use them to convince consumers to seek out products that may be unnecessary or ineffective. Politicians can use them to make government programs seem more successful than they really are. Doubtful that numbers can be so deceptive? A look at a few claims shows that numbers—and statements based on them—aren’t always as straightforward as they seem.Claim #1: “The Evergreen school district has basketball fever! Data shows there are twice as many basketball players here than in South Pines.”3 Evergreen students must love hitting the courts, much more so than the students of South Pines, right? While this is a reasonable conclusion to make after reading the claim, it may be totally wrong. Ignoring the size of populations is one way that people can use statistics to mislead. The claim above doesn’t seem all that impressive if the Evergreen school district has 5,000 students and the South Pines district only has 500. A district with many more students would logically have more student athletes, including basketball players. Further, if the Evergreen district has 10 times the number of students but only twice as many players, basketball would actually be more popular among the students of South Pines.Claim #2: “Our basketball DVD now available in stores will help players improve their game. Local athlete Cindy Penny scored 100 percent more baskets in an all-star match after just one hour of practicing our revolutionary shooting technique.”4 What’s the secret revealed in the DVD? Perhaps it’s a new way of planting your feet or holding your arms when you take a shot. Or, quite possibly, there’s really nothing novel revealed in the video. If that’s true, how could someone score so many more baskets after just a single hour of training? The truth lies in the numbers that were used to arrive at the "100 percent more" figure, which means twice as many. Cindy Penny may have scored just one basket a game before she practiced the “revolutionary technique.” To score 100 percent more baskets during that all-star match, she only had to sink two shots. The claim is technically truthful, but it uses extraordinary-sounding percentages that are based on comparatively unimpressive numbers. Claim #3: “More people are coming out to cheer on student athletes in 2013. Compared to 2012, attendance at weekly basketball games is up a whopping 30%!”5 Events that took place between 2012 and 2013 might easily explain this seemingly drastic increase in school spirit. A new community arena that holds more fans might have opened in 2013, for example. It’s possible that the old gymnasium just couldn’t pack in as many spectators. In this case, the claim isn’t an outright falsehood, but it does conveniently omit facts that could easily explain the change in attendance. A company might use a somewhat similar technique to paint an overly positive picture to potential investors. Comparing profits during a year in which sales were especially weak to the most recent year’s profits could make it appear as though the company is experiencing tremendous growth. In reality, though, sales may only be up slightly—or not at all—compared to a typical year.6 With a little know-how, people can avoid being swindled by statistics. Always look at the context in which numbers are being used and consider whether important information is being left out. Claims might not actually be as remarkable as they seem at first glance. Consider the purpose of statistics. Are they being used to convince people to buy something, do something, or think a certain way? If so, view them with a healthy dose of skepticism. They might not be telling the whole truth.

Question

Numbers Don’t Lie--Or Do They?1 When companies want to market products, they often use numbers in their campaigns. Statements that include numbers tend to sound like "cold, hard facts," while those that do not are more likely to be viewed as opinions or unproven claims. Consider the following two statements about a new brand of toothpaste: 1) We think you’ll agree the minty taste is great. 2) Three out of every four people surveyed said they enjoyed the fresh minty taste. The second seems more compelling, probably because there is a popular notion that “numbers don’t lie.”2 Yet statistics—information presented in number form—are notorious for telling some of the biggest falsehoods and half-truths of all. Depending on how statistics are presented, they can cause people to reach incorrect conclusions and develop mistaken ideas about an issue. Advertisers can use them to convince consumers to seek out products that may be unnecessary or ineffective. Politicians can use them to make government programs seem more successful than they really are. Doubtful that numbers can be so deceptive? A look at a few claims shows that numbers—and statements based on them—aren’t always as straightforward as they seem.Claim #1: “The Evergreen school district has basketball fever! Data shows there are twice as many basketball players here than in South Pines.”3 Evergreen students must love hitting the courts, much more so than the students of South Pines, right? While this is a reasonable conclusion to make after reading the claim, it may be totally wrong. Ignoring the size of populations is one way that people can use statistics to mislead. The claim above doesn’t seem all that impressive if the Evergreen school district has 5,000 students and the South Pines district only has 500. A district with many more students would logically have more student athletes, including basketball players. Further, if the Evergreen district has 10 times the number of students but only twice as many players, basketball would actually be more popular among the students of South Pines.Claim #2: “Our basketball DVD now available in stores will help players improve their game. Local athlete Cindy Penny scored 100 percent more baskets in an all-star match after just one hour of practicing our revolutionary shooting technique.”4 What’s the secret revealed in the DVD? Perhaps it’s a new way of planting your feet or holding your arms when you take a shot. Or, quite possibly, there’s really nothing novel revealed in the video. If that’s true, how could someone score so many more baskets after just a single hour of training? The truth lies in the numbers that were used to arrive at the "100 percent more" figure, which means twice as many. Cindy Penny may have scored just one basket a game before she practiced the “revolutionary technique.” To score 100 percent more baskets during that all-star match, she only had to sink two shots. The claim is technically truthful, but it uses extraordinary-sounding percentages that are based on comparatively unimpressive numbers. Claim #3: “More people are coming out to cheer on student athletes in 2013. Compared to 2012, attendance at weekly basketball games is up a whopping 30%!”5 Events that took place between 2012 and 2013 might easily explain this seemingly drastic increase in school spirit. A new community arena that holds more fans might have opened in 2013, for example. It’s possible that the old gymnasium just couldn’t pack in as many spectators. In this case, the claim isn’t an outright falsehood, but it does conveniently omit facts that could easily explain the change in attendance. A company might use a somewhat similar technique to paint an overly positive picture to potential investors. Comparing profits during a year in which sales were especially weak to the most recent year’s profits could make it appear as though the company is experiencing tremendous growth. In reality, though, sales may only be up slightly—or not at all—compared to a typical year.6 With a little know-how, people can avoid being swindled by statistics. Always look at the context in which numbers are being used and consider whether important information is being left out. Claims might not actually be as remarkable as they seem at first glance. Consider the purpose of statistics. Are they being used to convince people to buy something, do something, or think a certain way? If so, view them with a healthy dose of skepticism. They might not be telling the whole truth.

Choose the set of words from each drop-down menu that BEST completes the sentence.

1. The inference that some statistics may be more misleading when ___
A. smaller
B.similar
C.unrelated
D. larger

2. numbers are compared is supported by the ideas in ____.
A. paragraph 1
B. paragraph 4
C. paragraph 6
D. paragraph 8

Answer 1

1. A. smaller

2. D. paragraph 8