Switch the electoral votes in Michigan and Alaska with the outcome of the 2020 Election (give those votes to the loser and recalculate). If either of the states had gone the "other way" would the outcome of the 2020 election change? Is so, which state and why? If not, why not?
To analyze the potential impact on the outcome of the 2020 election by swapping the electoral votes between Michigan and Alaska, we need to consider their respective outcomes, and how the Electoral College system works.
In the 2020 election, Michigan, a key swing state, had 16 electoral votes and was won by Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate. Alaska, a reliably Republican state, had 3 electoral votes and was won by Donald Trump, the Republican candidate.
Now, let's hypothetically swap these outcomes:
1. If we give Michigan's 16 electoral votes to Donald Trump:
- Total electoral votes for Trump would become 247 (original 231 + Michigan 16)
- Total electoral votes for Biden would remain at 306
- The outcome of the 2020 election would not change, as Biden would still have more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
2. If we give Alaska's 3 electoral votes to Joe Biden:
- Total electoral votes for Biden would become 309 (original 306 + Alaska 3)
- Total electoral votes for Trump would remain at 232
- The outcome of the 2020 election would not change, as Biden would still have more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
In both cases, swapping the electoral votes between Michigan and Alaska would not alter the final result of the 2020 election. This is because Biden secured a comfortable lead of 306 electoral votes, while 270 are needed to win the presidency.
It's important to note that the outcome of individual states matters within the context of the Electoral College system, where the candidate receiving the majority of electoral votes nationwide (not the popular vote) becomes the President. Changing the result of a single state does not necessarily change the outcome if it doesn't affect the candidate's total number of electoral votes.
can you put your answer in a small paragraph
Swapping the electoral votes between Michigan and Alaska in the 2020 election would not change the outcome. If we gave Michigan's electoral votes to Donald Trump or Alaska's electoral votes to Joe Biden, the result would remain the same. Joe Biden won the election with 306 electoral votes, well above the 270 needed to win. Even though Michigan was a crucial swing state and Alaska a traditionally Republican state, the outcome was determined by the overall electoral vote count, where Biden maintained a comfortable lead. Hence, swapping these states' electoral votes would not alter the final result.
Look at the margin of victories between Michigan and Alaska. A 4% margin is considered a good win. What candidates won those states by more than 4%? List them and answer this question - Why do you think someone would win by a BIG margin?
In the 2020 election, Joe Biden won Michigan by a margin of 2.8%, while Donald Trump won Alaska by a margin of 10.1%. Based on these results, Donald Trump won Alaska by more than a 4% margin, indicating a relatively larger victory compared to Biden's win in Michigan.
There can be various reasons why a candidate may win by a big margin:
1. Strong party dominance: Some states have a strong historical preference for a particular political party. In the case of Alaska, it is traditionally a Republican state, which could explain Trump's larger victory.
2. Demographic composition: The composition of voters in a state plays a role. Factors such as the population's political leanings, ideology, and demographics can influence the election outcome. Understanding and appealing to the preferences of the majority of voters in a state can lead to a wider margin of victory.
3. Campaign strategies and presence: Candidates often focus more resources, time, and effort on states they believe they have a higher chance of winning. This strategic approach can contribute to a larger margin of victory if a candidate invests heavily in campaigning, advertising, connecting with voters, and mobilizing support in a particular state.
4. Issues and policies: Regional and local issues specific to a state can impact voters' decisions. Candidates who effectively address and connect with voters based on their concerns and policies may see a larger margin of victory.
5. Voter enthusiasm and turnout: Higher enthusiasm and voter turnout can influence the margin of victory. If a candidate can motivate and mobilize a larger number of supporters in a state, it can lead to a wider gap between the winner and loser.
It is important to remember that multiple factors can contribute to a big margin of victory, and these reasons can vary between states and elections.