Aiden read that blue jays can mimic the calls of other birds like hawks and crows. He wanted to listen to the sounds blue jays make, so he put out some treats to attract them to his yard. Here are the treats the blue jays have eaten so far today:
peanut, acorn, peanut, corn kernel, acorn, peanut, acorn, peanut, corn kernel, peanut
Based on the data, what is the probability that the next treat eaten by a blue jay will be a peanut?
I don't think you can give an answer to this. All you know is that 5/11 of the snacks taken were peanuts. But now there are fewer peanuts, and also fewer snacks. So how can you say what P(next = peanut) will be?
Maybe some good probability guy can provide a general formula that takes into account the changing sample sizes.