infectious diseases epidemiology
posted by naushin .
1. You are in charge of HIV prevention in Sydney, Australia, which celebrates a 2week long Gay and Lesbian Mardi Gras and is famous for the sexual liberties taken during that period. Which groups, from those listed below, do you target for interventions? Why? Assume that the probability of HIV transmission during an encounter is 0.03, and that condom use decreases this probability to 0.001. Show all calculations and state any assumptions made. In addition to any calculations, you should explain which group you decide to target and how (2 marks for discussion; approximately half a page).
a. Occasional sex workers with an average of 2 clients per day for 50 days per year. All use condoms when able, but the average rate of use is 5%. The HIV prevalence in this group is 15%. There are 1000 people in this group who live in Sydney yearround (1 mark for calculations).
b. HIVpositive vacationers who come to Sydney for Mardi Gras and who stay on average 2 weeks; they have on average 3 partners per day and engage in ‘risky behaviors’ that increase the HIV transmission probability to 0.06. You anticipate 5000 visitors with this profile (1 mark for calculations).
c. Professional sex workers with an average of 2 clients per day for 300 days per year. All use condoms when able and the average rate of use is 90%. The HIV prevalence in this group is 50%. There are 3000 people in this group, who live in Sydney yearround (1 mark for calculations).

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