There is a disparity between theory and direct observation. Because theories are based on observations, how are these theories first developed in the absence of direct observations?
The development of theories in the absence of direct observations involves a process known as theoretical modeling. Theoretical modeling is a technique used by scientists to construct theoretical frameworks based on existing knowledge, concepts, and principles.
Here is how theories are first developed in the absence of direct observations:
1. Identify the problem: Scientists begin by identifying a problem or a set of phenomena that require an explanation. This could be something that has been observed indirectly or inferred from existing knowledge.
2. Formulate assumptions: Based on existing knowledge and understanding of related phenomena, scientists make assumptions about the underlying principles and mechanisms that might be at play. These assumptions serve as starting points for developing the theory.
3. Construct a theoretical framework: Scientists then build a theoretical framework that incorporates the assumptions and known principles. This framework helps provide a structure for understanding the problem and predicting outcomes.
4. Conduct thought experiments: In the absence of direct observations, scientists rely on thought experiments to explore the implications of their theoretical framework. These mental experiments involve imagining different scenarios and predicting how the system would behave based on the assumptions and principles incorporated into the theory.
5. Test predictions: Once a theoretical framework has been constructed, scientists can test its predictions by designing experiments or making observations that indirectly validate or invalidate the theory. This might involve looking for relevant indirect evidence, using computational simulations, or gathering data from related phenomena.
6. Refine and revise: The results of these indirect tests are then used to refine the theoretical framework. If the predictions align with observations, scientists gain confidence in the theory and may build on it further. However, if the predictions do not match the observations, the theory may need to be revised or alternative explanations may need to be considered.
It is important to note that the development of theories in the absence of direct observations is a dynamic process. Theoretical frameworks are constantly refined, revised, and expanded as new observations become available. Over time, the accumulation of direct evidence helps refine and shape these theories, minimizing the disparity between theory and direct observation.