Would slavery have ended in the United States without the Civil War?

To answer this question, let's break it down into two main parts: 1) Would slavery have ended in the United States, and 2) Would it have ended without the Civil War?

1) Would slavery have ended in the United States?
Slavery was deeply ingrained in the economy and society of the Southern states in the early to mid-19th century. However, there were various factors and movements that could have potentially led to the end of slavery even without the Civil War:

a) Moral and ethical arguments: The anti-slavery sentiment had been growing in the United States. Abolitionist movements, fueled by religious beliefs and moral convictions, gained momentum, with prominent figures like Frederick Douglass and Harriet Tubman advocating for the abolition of slavery.

b) Economic changes: Over time, the economic viability of slavery was being questioned. Industrialization and advancements in technology, such as the cotton gin, reduced the demand for slave labor. Some economists argued that free wage labor was more efficient and profitable than slavery.

c) International pressure: Slavery had already been abolished in most European countries by the mid-19th century. The transatlantic slave trade was also abolished in 1808. International pressure and changing attitudes towards slavery could have influenced the United States to consider ending the institution.

2) Would slavery have ended without the Civil War?
The Civil War, which took place from 1861 to 1865, was a pivotal event that ultimately led to the abolition of slavery in the United States. The war started as a conflict over various issues, including states' rights, the expansion of slavery, and economic differences between the Northern and Southern states. While it is impossible to definitively say what would have happened without the Civil War, we can consider some scenarios:

a) Legislative and political processes: Slavery could have potentially ended through legislative and political means. The possibility of gradual emancipation was being discussed. It is worth noting that some Northern states had already abolished slavery before the Civil War, and there were movements advocating for a national abolition of slavery.

b) Compromise or peaceful resolutions: In the absence of the Civil War, compromises, negotiations, and peaceful resolutions could have been pursued to address the issue of slavery. Alternatives such as compensated emancipation, where slaveholders would be compensated for freeing their slaves, were considered.

c) Extended persistence of slavery: On the other hand, without the Civil War, it is also plausible that slavery could have persisted for a longer period. The institution had a strong foothold in the South, and the economic and political power of slaveholders might have hindered legislative efforts to end slavery.

In conclusion, while it is difficult to predict with certainty, it is possible that slavery could have eventually ended in the United States through various means, such as legislative processes or societal changes. However, the Civil War played a significant role in accelerating the abolition of slavery by resolving the conflicting ideologies and power struggles that surrounded the institution.