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Texas Wildcatters Inc. (TWI) is in the business of finding and developing oil properties, and then selling the successful ones to major oil refining companies. TWI is now considering a new potential field, and its geologists have developed the following data, in thousands of dollars.

t = 0. A \$400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0. The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project.

t = 1. If the feasibility study indicates good potential, the firm would spend \$1,000 at t = 1 to drill exploratory wells. The best estimate is that there is an 80% probability that the exploratory wells would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done, and a 20% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned.

t = 2. If the exploratory wells test positive, TWI would go ahead and spend \$10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2. The best estimate now is that there is a 60% probability that the results would be very good and a 40% probability that results would be poor and the field would be abandoned.

t = 3. If the full drilling program is carried out, there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a \$25,000 cash inflow at t = 3, and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then only receiving a \$10,000 inflow.

Refer to Scenario 14-1. In the previous problem you were asked to find the expected NPV of a project TWI is considering. Use the same data to calculate the project's coefficient of variation. (Hint: Use the expected NPV as found in the previous problem.)

5.87

6.52

7.25

7.97

8.77

6.52

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