statistic
posted by mark .
Wendy is a randomly chosen member of a large female population, in which 13% are pregnant. Wendy tests positive in a pregnancy test. Pregnancy test correctly identifies pregnancy 91% of the time and correctly identifies non pregnancy 95% of the time. What is the probability that Wendy is pregnant given the positive test result ?

statistic 
PsyDAG
Why wouldn't it be .91?
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