Probability

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Suppose that the probability is 1 in 3,900,000 that a single auto trip in the United States will result in the death of the driver. Over a lifetime, an average U.S. driver takes 50,000 trips. Assume that events are independent: (a) What is the probability of such a driver surviving 50,000 such trips? (b) What is the probability of having a fatal accident over the span of 50,000 trips? (c) Why might the assumption of independence be violated? (d) Why might a driver be tempted not to use a seat belt “just on this trip”?

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