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Math/modelling

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Hi, I have a linear model with equation p =5.1t - 28, which concerns breeding pairs of birds where p is the number of breeding pairs and t is the year. I need to use this model to estimate the number of breeding pairs in year 15. I would assume to do this I just need to insert t = 15 into the equation to give 48.5, however, this is totally out of sync with the rest of the scatterplot I have been given for this question as all the number of breeding pairs are gradually going up and my answer to this model would be 1/4 of year 14, could someone tell me where I am going wrong please?

Also, I have been given an exponential model p =5.3 x (1.11)^t to solve the same question, again I would assume I would insert t = 15 into the equation but again this is giving out an answer which is out of sync, any help would be very much appreciated.

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