MATH: PROBABILITIES

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You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.55. You are 89 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.
You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?

  • MATH: PROBABILITIES -

    Well....

    I am not %100 percent sure, but I think I have got the right answer.

    100-89%=11%

    Then, 85% of 11% is 9% (rounded)

    So I would say 9%

  • MATH: PROBABILITIES -

    Does this question come form a section in your course called Markov's chains?

    if so, then set up a transition matrix with 2 columns called Die, Live and
    two rows called water, no water
    that would be
    .85 .15
    .55 .45

    multiply that by
    .11 .89 -- did water is last number

    to get

    .58 .417

    so there is a 58% chance your neighbour forgot to water.

  • MATH: PROBABILITIES -

    both of you are wrong...

  • MATH: PROBABILITIES -

    any one know the answer:(?

  • MATH: PROBABILITIES -

    You need to use the rule of BAYES and the theorem of total probability.

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