Considerable literature has accumulated over the years regarding the combination of forecasts. The primary conclusion of this line of research is that forecast accuracy can be substantially improved through the combination of multiple individual forecasts. Furthermore, simple combination methods often work reasonably well relative to more complex combinations. This paper provides a review and annotated bibliography of that literature, including contributions from the forecasting, psychology, statistics, and management science literatures. The objectives are to provide a guide to the literature for students and researchers and to help researchers locate contributions in specific areas, both theoretical and applied.

Question

PROVIDE A SUMMARY OF THE SOURCE THAT IDENTIFIES THE AUTHOR’S CLAIM AND MAIN PIECES OF SUPPORT.

Answer 1

The author claims that combining multiple individual forecasts can substantially improve forecast accuracy and that simple combination methods are often as effective as more complex ones. The paper provides a review and annotated bibliography of literature from various disciplines, including forecasting, psychology, statistics, and management science, to support this claim. The objective of the paper is to serve as a guide for students and researchers, helping them locate contributions in specific areas, both theoretical and applied, related to the combination of forecasts.