Define the Key Words on page 1:
• Weather Forecast-
• Weather Model-
Forecasts are not very accurate when made far in advance. Why is the most recent forecast the most accurate?
Scientists look at many data points to make weather predictions. They use satellites to gather data about various weather conditions, such as: (found on page 4)
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• Wind speed
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• Air pressure
With the data gathered from the satellites and other tools, scientists use computers to run weather model simulations to predict what the weather will be like.
Why do scientists gather data and make models about hurricanes?
Which forecast would be better to use when planning an event, a 2-day forecast or a 10-day forecast? Why?
Answer both question on page 9:
What is the difference between current weather and a forecast?
What are some tools that help scientists make weather forecasts?
- Weather Forecast: A prediction or estimation of the weather conditions expected in a particular area at a specific time in the future.
- Weather Model: A computer-generated simulation or mathematical representation of the atmosphere used to predict and analyze weather patterns.
The most recent forecast is considered more accurate because it incorporates the most up-to-date data and information. As time progresses, new data and information become available, allowing forecasters to refine and adjust their predictions. Additionally, weather conditions can change rapidly, so a more recent forecast takes into account the most current observations.
Scientists gather data and make models about hurricanes to understand their behavior and predict their path and intensity. This information helps in issuing accurate forecasts and warnings, providing crucial information for emergency preparedness and response.
When planning an event, a 2-day forecast would generally be considered more reliable than a 10-day forecast. Weather conditions become more uncertain the further in advance the forecast is made. Therefore, a 2-day forecast provides a more accurate and reliable estimation of the weather conditions during the event compared to a forecast made 10 days in advance.
The current weather refers to the real-time atmospheric conditions at a specific time and place, while a forecast is a prediction or estimate of the expected weather conditions in the future. Current weather describes the immediate situation, while a forecast is based on data analysis and modeling to project future conditions.
Some tools that help scientists make weather forecasts include:
- Satellites: Gather data on cloud cover, temperature, humidity, and other parameters from space.
- Weather Stations: Devices on the ground that measure temperature, air pressure, wind speed, and other weather variables.
- Weather Balloons: Carry instruments that measure temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure as they ascend through the atmosphere.
- Weather Radars: Detect precipitation, storm intensity, and movement using radio waves.
- Computer Models: Highly complex mathematical simulations that process data and equations to produce forecast predictions.