Diseases tend to spread according to the exponential growth model. In the early days of AIDS, the growth factor (i.e. common ratio; growth multiple) was around 2.0. In 1983, about 1800 people in the U .S died of AIDS. If the trend has continued unchecked, how many people would have died from AIDS in 2005?
Let's assume that the number of people dying from AIDS each year follows an exponential growth model with a growth factor of 2.0.
To find out how many people would have died from AIDS in 2005, we need to know how many years have passed since 1983. Since we're dealing with a 22-year time period (1983-2005), we can use the formula for exponential growth:
N = N0 x 2^t
where:
N = the number of people dying from AIDS in 2005
N0 = the number of people who died from AIDS in 1983 (1800)
t = the number of years that have passed since 1983 (22)
Plugging in the values, we get:
N = 1800 x 2^22
N ≈ 152,587,890
Therefore, if the trend of exponential growth in AIDS deaths had continued unchecked, we would expect around 152,587,890 people to have died from AIDS in the U.S. in 2005.
To determine how many people would have died from AIDS in 2005 using the exponential growth model, we can use the growth factor of 2.0.
First, let's calculate the number of years between 1983 and 2005:
2005 - 1983 = 22 years
Since the growth factor is 2.0, it means that the number of deaths would double every year.
Now, let's calculate the number of deaths in 2005 based on the data from 1983:
Number of deaths in 1983: 1800
Number of deaths in 2005 = Number of deaths in 1983 * (growth factor)^(number of years)
Number of deaths in 2005 = 1800 * (2.0)^22
Using a calculator, we can calculate the number of deaths in 2005:
Number of deaths in 2005 ≈ 1800 * 4194304
Therefore, if the trend continued unchecked, approximately 7,550,548 people would have died from AIDS in 2005.