A city ballot includes a local initiative that would legalize gambling. The issue is hotly contested, and two groups decide to conduct polls to predict the outcome. The local newspaper finds that 53% of 1200 randomly selected voters plan to vote "yes," while a college statistics class finds that 54% of 450 randomly selected voters in support.

Once of the groups concludes the outcome is too close to call. Which group and why?

A) The newspaper since their point estimate is lower.
B) The statistics class since their point estimate is higher.
C) The statistics class since the lower bound of their confidence interval is below 50%.
D) The newspaper since the lower bound of their confidence interval is just above 50%.
E) It is impossible to determine with the given information.

Is the answer D? I am struggling with this question. Thanks.

Conclude that their interval is too close to call because 50% is in the interval, meaning that it is quite likely that p could be 50%.

Thank you, but I'm still confused. So is there not enough info to answer this question? Thank you for your time.

The answer to this question is D) The newspaper since the lower bound of their confidence interval is just above 50%.

When conducting a poll, it's important to consider not only the point estimate (the percentage of voters in support) but also the confidence interval. A confidence interval gives a range of values within which the true population parameter is likely to fall.

In this case, the newspaper's point estimate is 53%. However, the lower bound of their confidence interval is just above 50%, which means that there is still a possibility that the true support for the local initiative is below 50%. This indicates that the outcome is uncertain and too close to call.

On the other hand, the statistics class's point estimate is 54% with no information provided about their confidence interval. Since the newspaper's confidence interval provides additional information indicating uncertainty, it is reasonable to conclude that the outcome is too close to call based on the newspaper's findings.

To determine the answer to this question, we need to understand the concept of confidence intervals and point estimates and how they relate to predicting the outcome of the ballot.

A point estimate is a single value that represents the best estimate of a population parameter. In this case, the point estimates are 53% and 54% for the newspaper and the statistics class, respectively. These values give us an idea of the proportion of voters in favor of legalizing gambling according to each group's survey.

On the other hand, a confidence interval is a range of values within which we expect the true population parameter to fall. It takes into account the variability of the data and provides a measure of uncertainty. A wider confidence interval indicates greater uncertainty, while a narrower one suggests more confidence in the estimate.

Given that both groups have conducted polls, we can consider the confidence intervals to assess the uncertainty of their estimates. However, the question does not mention the confidence intervals for either group, so we cannot directly compare them.

Therefore, since the confidence intervals are not provided, we cannot determine which group's prediction is too close to call just based on the information given. The correct answer is E) It is impossible to determine with the given information.