In three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican primary has not captured the Republican nomination. Therefore, the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination.

a) true beyond a reasonable doubt
b) probably true
c) possibly true or possibly false
The answer is (C) possibly true or possibly false - One is never certain about nominations or who the winners will be.

I agree -- again! :-)

Thank you

You're welcome.

To understand why the answer is possibly true or possibly false, let's break down the statement and analyze it step by step.

The statement suggests that because in three out of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican primary did not go on to win the Republican nomination, the same outcome will occur in the next Iowa Republican primary.

To evaluate the statement, we need to recognize that past events do not guarantee future outcomes. Just because something happened in the past does not mean it will happen again. So, while it is true that in three out of the last four races, the winner of the Iowa Republican primary did not capture the nomination, this pattern does not guarantee the same result in the future.

Political dynamics, strategies, and the preferences of voters can change over time. It's possible that in the next Iowa Republican primary, the winner may indeed capture the Republican nomination. Alternatively, the pattern could continue, and the winner of the Iowa Republican primary may not win the nomination.

In conclusion, since we cannot predict future events with absolute certainty, the answer to this statement is possibly true or possibly false (option c).