Shelly delivers the weekly local paper to neighborhoods in her town. House numbers are even on one side of the street and odd on the other. Shelly delivers an equal number of papers to both sides of the street. Although she always aims for the front doorstep, Shelly typically misses on three of the tosses on her route each week. Design and conduct a simulation to estimate the probability that next week, Shelly's three misses will all be at odd-numbered houses.
Hint: You can set up the experiment using 3 coins to collect the data. Allow one side of the coin to represent Heads (evens) and one other side to represent Tails (odds).
a) Explain clearly your design of the simulation, including choice of probability tool and description of a single trial.
b) Conduct the simulation with trials and record the results.
c) Calculate the experimental probability that all 3 of Shelly's missed papers will be at odd-numbered houses.
The way this is written you need to A:conduct three trials using three different coins (1 for each trial). For each trial flip the coin three times & record the results (heads even & tails odd). Each flip represents one of the three misses for that route.
B: Actually do the experiment/trials three separate times and record the results.
C: Calculate the experimental Probability based on the results of your experiment. (answers will differ depending on the results of your experiment.
Its basically just fractions times each other
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8
Its 1 eighth probability
So 0.125
Or 12.5%
Or 1/8
a) To design the simulation, we can use a probability tool such as a fair coin. Each toss of the coin will represent a trial for Shelly's paper delivery. We will assign one side of the coin to represent "Heads" (even-numbered houses) and the other side to represent "Tails" (odd-numbered houses).
In a single trial, we will simulate Shelly's delivery by flipping the coin three times. If all three tosses result in "Tails," it will mean that Shelly has missed all three papers at odd-numbered houses.
b) To conduct the simulation, we need to perform a certain number of trials. Let's say we decide to conduct 100 trials.
In each trial, we will flip the coin three times and record the outcome (Heads or Tails) for each toss. If all three outcomes are Tails, we will count it as a successful trial, indicating that Shelly missed all three papers at odd-numbered houses. We will repeat this process for a total of 100 trials.
c) After conducting the simulation with 100 trials, we will calculate the experimental probability that all three of Shelly's missed papers will be at odd-numbered houses.
To do this, we will divide the number of successful trials (where Shelly missed all three papers at odd-numbered houses) by the total number of trials (100). The result will give us the experimental probability of Shelly's three missed papers all being at odd-numbered houses.