Hugo has a job interview at Telus. He has a 56% of waking up late on the morning of the interview. When he wakes up late he has a 33% chance of missing his bus to take him to the interview. At this rate he will be late and he has a 27% chance of actually obtaining the job. What is the probability that Hugo will be working at Telus?
mmmh, didn't you state in the question that he has a prob of .27 that he will get the job ?
To find the probability that Hugo will be working at Telus, we need to consider the probabilities of each step in the process: waking up late, missing the bus, and obtaining the job.
First, let's find the probability that Hugo wakes up late. Given that he has a 56% chance of waking up late, the probability of waking up late is 0.56 or 56%.
Next, we need to consider the probability that Hugo misses his bus. Given that Hugo wakes up late, he has a 33% chance of missing the bus. Therefore, the probability of missing the bus is 0.33 or 33%.
Finally, we need to calculate the probability that Hugo obtains the job. Given that he is late for the interview, he has a 27% chance of actually obtaining the job. Therefore, the probability of obtaining the job is 0.27 or 27%.
To find the overall probability that Hugo will be working at Telus, we need to consider all the possible scenarios and calculate the combined probability.
Scenario 1: Hugo wakes up on time (44% or 1 - 56%). In this case, it doesn't matter whether he misses the bus or not, so the probability of obtaining the job is 100% or 1.
Scenario 2: Hugo wakes up late but catches the bus. The probability of waking up late is 56% and the probability of catching the bus is 67% or 1 - 33%. Therefore, the probability of obtaining the job in this scenario is 27% (as stated).
Scenario 3: Hugo wakes up late and misses the bus. The probability of waking up late is 56% and the probability of missing the bus is 33%. Therefore, the probability of obtaining the job in this scenario is 0%.
To calculate the overall probability, we sum up the probabilities of each scenario:
Overall probability = (Probability of Scenario 1) + (Probability of Scenario 2) + (Probability of Scenario 3)
Overall probability = (44% * 100%) + (56% * 67%) + (56% * 33% * 0%)
Overall probability = 44% + 37.52% + 0
Overall probability = 81.52%
Therefore, the probability that Hugo will be working at Telus is 81.52%.