Given the premises, discuss whether the conclusion of each argument that
follows is (a) true beyond a reasonable doubt, (b) probably true, or (c) possibly true or possibly false. Can someone please check these for me to see if I am on the right track please!!!!! Thanks.
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1. The annual rainfall in California’s north valley averages twenty-three
inches. So the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches.
Exercise #1 Answer.
Possibly true; annually rain fall average twenty-three inches, it is quite possible that the rain fall will be the same next year.
2. You expect to get forty miles to the gallon in that? Why, that old wreck has a monster V8; besides, it’s fifty years old and needs an overhaul.
Answer. Probably true; it is possibly that old wreck could give forty miles to the gallon even though it needs overhaul it has a monster V8the old wreck has a monster V8.
3. In three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican
Primary has not captured the Republican nomination. Therefore, the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination.
Answer: Possibly false: there is no guarantee that the republican s will not capture the primary. Elections results depend on who the people desire to win
4. The number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in each of
the past few years. Therefore there will be even more of them in use this
coming year.
Answer: True beyond a reasonably doubt; it maybe that technology has been increasing and we have seen the demands for cellular phone increasing as more and more people are buying phone.
5. Since the graduates of Harvard, Yale, Princeton, and other Ivy League
schools generally score higher on the Graduate Record Examination than
students from Central State, it follows that the Ivy League schools do
more toward educating their students than Central State does.
Answer: Possibly true : a school that score higher on the Graduate Record Examination maybe doing more in educating their students.
6. Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody else in
California. You can bet he’s had more than anybody in Connecticut!
Answer ; Possibly false. Since Michael Jackson does not live in Connecticut it is not likely that he has done more surgery that anybody living in Connecticut.
7. When liquor was banned in 1920, hospitalizations for alcoholism and
related diseases plummeted; in 1933, when Prohibition was repealed,
alcohol-related illnesses rose sharply again. Legalization of cocaine,
heroin, and marijuana would not curb abuse of those substances.
Answer: Probable true, Since alcohol- related illness rose sharply, it is possible that legislation will not curb abuse of cocaine, heroin and marijuana.
8. Relax. The kid’s been delivering the paper for, how long? Three, four
years maybe? And not once has she missed us. The paper will be here, just wait and see. She’s just been delayed for some reason.
Answer: True beyond a reasonable doubt: it may be that she is delayed for some reason, but as long as she has never missed a day in the three to four years you need to relax.
Your analysis is mostly correct. Here is the correct assessment for each argument:
1. The conclusion is "the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches."
Answer: Probably true. The argument states that the annual rainfall averages 23 inches, so it is likely that the rainfall next year will be around the same amount.
2. The conclusion is "You expect to get forty miles to the gallon in that?"
Answer: Possibly false. The argument presents reasons why it is unlikely for the old wreck to get forty miles to the gallon, but it doesn't definitively prove that it won't.
3. The conclusion is "the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination."
Answer: Possibly true. The argument provides evidence from past elections, but it doesn't guarantee the same outcome for the next election. It is possible, but not certain, that the winner of the Iowa Republican primary will not capture the nomination.
4. The conclusion is "there will be even more of them in use this coming year."
Answer: Probably true. The argument states that the number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in the past few years, suggesting that the trend will continue and there will be even more in use.
5. The conclusion is "the Ivy League schools do more toward educating their students than Central State does."
Answer: Possibly true. The argument presents evidence that graduates from Ivy League schools generally score higher on the Graduate Record Examination, which suggests that they may receive a better education. However, the conclusion is not definite and could be attributed to other factors as well.
6. The conclusion is "Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody in Connecticut."
Answer: Possibly false. The argument assumes that because Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody in California, he must have had more than anybody in Connecticut. However, the argument doesn't provide any evidence to support this assumption.
7. The conclusion is "legalization of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana would not curb abuse of those substances."
Answer: Probably true. The argument presents evidence that hospitalizations for alcoholism and related diseases decreased during the Prohibition era and rose sharply after its repeal. It suggests that legalizing substances like cocaine, heroin, and marijuana may have a similar effect on abuse.
8. The conclusion is "The paper will be here, just wait and see. She’s just been delayed for some reason."
Answer: Probably true. The argument provides evidence that the paper delivery person has never missed a day in the three to four years, and suggests that her delay is temporary and not a sign of missing the delivery. Based on this evidence, it is likely that the paper will eventually arrive.
1. The conclusion that the rainfall next year will be twenty-three inches is possibly true. This is because the premise states that the annual rainfall in California's north valley averages twenty-three inches, but there is no guarantee that the rainfall will be exactly the same next year. It is possible that there could be variations in the amount of rainfall from year to year.
2. The conclusion that the old wreck will give forty miles to the gallon is probably true. While the old wreck has a monster V8 engine and is fifty years old, it is still possible for it to achieve forty miles to the gallon. The premise does not provide any contradictory information that would make this conclusion impossible, so it is likely that the old wreck could still achieve this fuel efficiency even though it needs an overhaul.
3. The conclusion that the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary will not capture the Republican nomination is possibly false. The premise states that in three of the last four presidential races, the winner of the Iowa Republican Primary has not captured the Republican nomination. However, there is no guarantee that this pattern will continue in the future. The outcome of elections depends on various factors, including the preferences of the voters, and it is possible for the winner of the next Iowa Republican primary to still capture the Republican nomination.
4. The conclusion that there will be even more cellular telephones in use this coming year is true beyond a reasonable doubt. The premise states that the number of cellular telephones has increased dramatically in each of the past few years, indicating a trend of increasing usage. Given this trend, it is highly likely that there will be even more cellular telephones in use in the coming year.
5. The conclusion that Ivy League schools do more toward educating their students than Central State does is possibly true. The premise states that graduates of Ivy League schools generally score higher on the Graduate Record Examination than students from Central State, suggesting a potential difference in educational quality. However, it is possible that there are other factors influencing the test scores, such as the student's preparation or individual abilities. Without further information, it is only a possibility that Ivy League schools do more in educating their students compared to Central State.
6. The conclusion that Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody in Connecticut is possibly false. The premise states that Michael Jackson has had more plastic surgery than anybody else in California. However, it does not provide any information about the amount of plastic surgery done by individuals in Connecticut. Without this information, it is not possible to determine whether the conclusion is true or false.
7. The conclusion that legalization of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana would not curb abuse of those substances is probably true. The premise presents a historical example where the hospitalizations for alcoholism and related diseases plummeted when liquor was banned, and rose sharply again when Prohibition was repealed. From this, it can be inferred that legalizing substances does not necessarily reduce abuse. However, the conclusion refers to substances other than alcohol, so further evidence or arguments would be needed to definitively establish the truth of this conclusion.
8. The conclusion that the paper will be delivered eventually is true beyond a reasonable doubt. The premise states that the kid has been delivering the paper for three to four years without missing, so it is highly likely that the paper will arrive, even if there is a delay. The previous track record of never missing a delivery provides justification for believing that the paper will be delivered.