The last 4 weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecass were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate
which answer:
qualitative methods
adaptive smoothing
slope
bias
trend projection
The last 4 weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units. The last four forecass were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units. These forecasts illustrate
which answer:
qualitative methods
adaptive smoothing
slope
bias
trend projection
The forecasts provided in the question are describing the method of trend projection. Trend projection involves analyzing historical data to identify patterns and trends, and then using those trends to make future predictions.
In this case, the last four weekly values of sales (80, 100, 105, and 90 units) suggest an increasing trend, while the last four forecasts (60, 80, 95, and 75 units) show an attempt to capture and project that upward trend.
Therefore, the correct answer is trend projection.
To determine which answer correctly identifies the forecasts provided, we need to understand the definitions of the options listed.
1. Qualitative methods: Qualitative methods refer to forecasting techniques that rely on subjective judgments, opinions, or expert knowledge to predict future values. These methods focus on factors such as market research, customer preferences, and expert opinions rather than numerical data.
2. Adaptive smoothing: Adaptive smoothing, also known as exponential smoothing, is a forecasting technique that assigns exponentially decreasing weights to past observations. This method gives more weight to recent observations, allowing the forecast to quickly adjust to changes in the data.
3. Slope: Slope refers to the incline or decline of a line on a graph, indicating the rate of change. In the context of forecasting, the slope can represent a trend or pattern in the data.
4. Bias: Bias, in forecasting terms, refers to a consistent deviation or error between actual values and forecasted values. A bias can occur when there is a systematic overestimation or underestimation over time.
5. Trend projection: Trend projection, also known as time series forecasting, is a method of predicting future values by identifying and extrapolating patterns or trends from historical data. It assumes that future values will follow the same pattern as past values.
Now, let's analyze the provided forecasts (60, 80, 95, and 75 units) and their relationship with the sales data (80, 100, 105, and 90 units).
By comparing the forecasts to the actual sales data, we can observe that the forecasts closely resemble the pattern of the sales values. This suggests that the forecasts are based on observations and historical data rather than subjective judgments.
Therefore, the correct answer is: Trend projection. The provided forecasts reflect a trend or pattern observed in the sales data.