It's estimated that 9,300 deaths occurred from skin cancer at the end of year 2000 and that 200,000 deaths from skin cancer might occur by the end of 2050.
Assuming the number of annual number of skin cancer deaths increases geometrically, what is the expected number of deaths due to skin cancer in 2020?
To calculate the expected number of deaths due to skin cancer in 2020, we need to use the geometric growth rate formula. The formula is given as:
N = N0 * (r ^ t)
where:
N = the final number of deaths (unknown)
N0 = the initial number of deaths (9,300 at the end of 2000)
r = the growth rate (unknown)
t = the number of years (20 years from 2000 to 2020)
Now, we need to find the growth rate (r). The geometric growth formula can be rearranged to solve for r:
r = (N / N0) ^ (1 / t)
Substituting the known values:
r = (200,000 / 9,300) ^ (1 / 50)
Calculating this value, we find:
r ≈ 1.0814
Now we can calculate the expected number of deaths in 2020 (t = 20 years) using the formula:
N = N0 * (r ^ t)
N = 9,300 * (1.0814 ^ 20)
Calculating this value, we find:
N ≈ 14,674
Therefore, the expected number of deaths due to skin cancer in 2020 is approximately 14,674.