Starting with a hypothetical population of 14,000 people and an even age distribution (1,000 in each age group from 1-5 to 66-70 years), assume that the population initially has a total fertility rate of 2.0 and an average life span of 70 years. Using the spreadsheet for exercises 1-3, estimate how the population will change from this generation to the next under each of the following conditions.
a. Total fertility rate and life expectancy remain constant.
b. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy remains constant.
c. Total fertility rate changes to 1.0; life expectancy remains constant.
d. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
e. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy decreases to 50.
F. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
Most developed countries have infant mortality rates of around 5 deaths per thousand live births, and some developing countries have infant mortality rates exceeding 100 deaths per 1,000 live births. How would either of these rates affect our final populations?
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To estimate how the population will change under different conditions, we need to calculate both births and deaths for each age group. We can start by calculating the number of births in each age group based on the total fertility rate (TFR).
a. Total fertility rate and life expectancy remain constant:
In this case, the TFR remains at 2.0. To calculate the number of births for each age group, we multiply the TFR by the number of women in each age group. Since the age distribution is even, there are 1,000 women in each age group. Therefore, the number of births in each age group is 2,000 (2.0 x 1,000).
Next, we calculate the number of deaths in each age group based on the average life span of 70 years. Since the age distribution is even, there are 1,000 people in each age group. Therefore, the number of deaths in each age group is 1,000.
Finally, to determine the size of the next generation, we subtract the number of deaths from the number of births in each age group and sum them up. In this case, the population size remains the same since the number of births equals the number of deaths.
b. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy remains constant:
We follow the same steps as in case (a), but now the TFR is 4.0. Therefore, the number of births in each age group is 4,000 (4.0 x 1,000).
Again, we subtract the number of deaths from the number of births in each age group and sum them up. As a result, the size of the next generation will increase since the number of births is greater than the number of deaths.
c. Total fertility rate changes to 1.0; life expectancy remains constant:
Again, we follow the same steps. However, now the TFR is 1.0. Therefore, the number of births in each age group is 1,000 (1.0 x 1,000).
After calculating the number of births and deaths in each age group, we find that the number of deaths exceeds the number of births in each age group. As a result, the population size will decrease in the next generation.
d. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy increases to 100:
We use the same method, but now the average life span is 100 years. Therefore, the number of deaths in each age group is 0 since no one in this hypothetical population lives beyond 70 years.
Again, we subtract the number of deaths (0) from the number of births in each age group and sum them up. The population size will increase since there are no deaths, but there are still births.
e. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy decreases to 50:
We follow the same steps, but now the average life span is 50 years. Therefore, the number of deaths in each age group is 500 (70-50 = 20 years of additional deaths).
Again, we subtract the number of deaths (500) from the number of births in each age group and sum them up. The population size will decrease since there are more deaths than births in each age group.
f. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy increases to 100:
Using the same method, we now have a TFR of 4.0 and an average life span of 100 years. Therefore, the number of births in each age group is 4,000 (4.0 x 1,000), and the number of deaths is 0 (as explained in case (d)).
After subtracting the number of deaths (0) from the number of births and summing them up, the population size will significantly increase since there are no deaths and a higher number of births.
Regarding the impact of different infant mortality rates on the final populations, we need additional information. Infant mortality refers to the death of infants within their first year of life. Without specific data, it is impossible to estimate the impact on the final populations. However, higher infant mortality rates would likely result in fewer surviving individuals and therefore a smaller population overall.