Five of the most serious international problems facing the world today are:

1) the proliferation of WMD
2) international terrorism
3) economic development in impoverished countries
4) international financial stability
5) climate change
In which of these five areas do you expect to see the most progress towards significant solutions in the next 20 years?
In which areas do you think progress/cooperation is least likely to occur?
Why

So I was thinking either 1 or 5 for most progress.

1 because it is a problem that has a very real feel of life and death. Increased in WMD increases likelihood of nuclear warfare. Esp with Iran and N. Korea taking up the headlines of today. But then, this issue has been around since the Cold War, and if a country is determined to attain nuclear arms, it will. Though with Kim nearing his death and Iran still in political and social turmoil, this issue will abate, but it wouldn't really be a 'solution.' Thus, if another state starts to get arms, its another new problem. But than the NPT has been successful at stopping proliferation and setting the norm that good countries don't need nukes.

But for climate change, its a issue backed up by lots of scientific evidence, and there have been movements to halt it. The Kyoto Protocol (though largely unsuccessful), the Montreal Protocol (more successful), and meetings at Copenhegan have done well to raise awareness. And the alt. energy industry has been making great strides. Also, climate change is one everyday people can help, one that can be taught in schools, and one that people can visually see with weather changes. Movies such as Day after Tomorrow and An Inconviennent Truth also help spread awareness. Thus over the next 20 years, with gov't subsidizing alt. energies and making treaties to work together, and the common people being more aware and taking greater action (wasting less and buying Priuses) could lead to a solution to climate change. But then, its hard to transition from awareness to action. And the lack of success at Copehegan and Kyoto is discouraging. And if youre a leader, and on your desk are two issues: climate change and WMD, I feel that WMD would draw greater attention.

Suggestions?

You have some excellent reasons.