Relax. The kid's been delivering the paper for, how long? Three, four
years maybe? And not once has she missed us. The paper will be here,
just wait and see. She's just been delayed for some reason
The argument is not valid. It is normal for a paper delivery to be missed every few years. It happens to me. Sometimes the delivery person forgets, or a susbsitute less familiar with the route must take over.
It would be like saying that a person can't have a fatal accident, or win a lottery, because he or she has never has before.
There must be a name for this fallacy, but I don't know it. Rarely does not mean never.
http://www.unc.edu/depts/wcweb/handouts/fallacies.html
In addition to the main information on the webpage, there's a list of fallacies linked at the right.
To determine how long the kid has been delivering the newspaper, we need to first gather the necessary information. In this case, it is mentioned that the kid has been delivering the paper for at least three or four years without missing a delivery. This suggests that the kid has been consistent in their delivery for a considerable amount of time.
However, to get the exact duration, it would be best to ask someone who has been receiving the paper directly from the kid or consult any delivery records if available. By reaching out to the people who have been receiving the paper or going through the delivery records, one can obtain accurate information on the kid's delivery history.
In situations where such information may not be readily available, it could be helpful to communicate directly with the kid or their parents, who would likely have the most accurate knowledge of the duration of the newspaper delivery.