# Probability

Confidence interval interpretation

Every day, I try to estimate an unknown parameter using a fresh data set. I look at the data and then I use some formulas to calculate a 70% confidence interval, [Θˆ−,Θˆ+], based on the day's data.

Are the following statements accurate?

Over the next 100 days, I expect that the unknown parameter will be inside the confidence interval about 70 times.

If today's confidence interval is [0.41,0.47], there is probability 70% that the unknown parameter is inside this confidence interval.

Out of 100 days on which the confidence interval happens to be [0.41,0.47], I expect that the unknown parameter will be inside the confidence interval about 70 times.

Today, I decided to use a Bayesian approach, by viewing the unknown parameter, denoted by Θ, as a continuous random variable and assuming a prior PDF for Θ. I observe a specific value x, calculate the posterior fΘ|X(⋅|x), and find out that

∫0.470.41fΘ|X(θ|x)dθ=0.70.

Am I allowed to say that there is probability 70% that the unknown parameter is inside the (Bayesian) confidence interval [0.41,0.47]?

1. 👍
2. 👎
3. 👁
1. yes
no
no
yes

1. 👍
2. 👎

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