Why did the first opinion poll on a presidential election—in Literary Digest in 1936—fail to predict the outcome?
A.
The sample was too small.
B.
The sample was not random.***
C.
The sampling relied on landlines.
D.
The sampling was too early in the election year.
I believe it was biased (so thus B)
I agree.
yes B is correct
You are correct, option B is the reason why the first opinion poll on a presidential election in Literary Digest in 1936 failed to predict the outcome. The sample used in the poll was not random, which introduced bias into the results. This means that the poll did not accurately reflect the opinions of the entire population.
To explain further, a random sample is a representative subset of a population in which each individual has an equal chance of being selected. In the case of the Literary Digest poll, they obtained their sample by sending out millions of postcards to addresses taken from phone directories, automobile registration lists, and club membership lists. However, this method systematically excluded a large segment of the population, specifically lower-income individuals who did not own a car or were not members of clubs. This created a sample that was biased towards wealthier individuals who were more likely to support Republican candidate Alfred Landon.
As a result of this bias, the poll predicted a landslide victory for Landon over incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt. However, in the actual election, Roosevelt won a decisive victory with nearly 62% of the popular vote. The failure of the Literary Digest poll highlighted the importance of using random sampling methods to obtain accurate and unbiased results in opinion polls.