I know that theoretical probability observes how may outcomes are possible and assumes that each outcome is as likely as any other to occur and empirical probability is based on actual facts or experiments. So theoretical is what we expect to happen and empirical is what actually happens.

The question is which is more reliable. I believe it's empirical because that is what we have observed. Would that be correct?

I do not understand the quesstion.

I do not buy " ..... each outcome is as likely as any other to occur ... "

experimental is in fact exact.

But only for that one trial.

A theoretical probability enables you to predict with reasonable accuracy the outcome of many trials, without having to perform them.

Yes, you are correct. Empirical probability is generally considered to be more reliable than theoretical probability because it is based on actual data or observations. Empirical probability is obtained by conducting experiments, collecting data, or observing occurrences in the real world. It takes into account specific conditions and circumstances, providing a more accurate representation of the likelihood of an event happening.

On the other hand, theoretical probability is based on assumptions and calculations, assuming that all outcomes are equally likely to occur. It relies on mathematical models and formulas to estimate probabilities. While theoretical probability can be useful in certain situations, it may not always accurately reflect the real-world probabilities.

In summary, empirical probability is more reliable because it is based on real data and observations, whereas theoretical probability relies on assumptions and mathematical calculations.