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A certain disease has an incidence rate of 0.5%. If the false negative rate is 7% and the false positive rate is 2%, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease.

  • MATH -

    A contingency table helps.
    Complete the table

    Test . has . . doesn't have
    result disease disease
    + = 0.005*0.93 0.995*.02
    - = 0.005*0.07 0.995*.98
    tot. 0.005 0.995

    The probability of a person who tests positive actually has the disease is in one of the cells.

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