David Hassenzahl discusses the relative risks of eating peanut butter contaminated with aflatoxin and apple juice contaminated with UDMH, a degradation product of Alar, in the Power Point presentation in a conference in one of our earlier weeks. The following Table shows his input data. Some of the data in this table are different than those in the PowerPoint presentation. The table below contains the correct information.
Variable Units Average 5th %ile 95th %ile Distribution
Peanut butter intake g/day 11.38 2.00 31.86 Lognormal
Apple juice intake g/day 136.84 16.02 430.02 Lognormal
Aflatoxin concentration ug/kg 2.82 1.00 6.5 Lognormal
UDMH concentration ug/kg 13.75 0.5 42.00 Lognormal
Aflatoxin potency kg-day/mg 17.5 4.02 28.33 Normal
UDMH potency kg-day/mg 0.49 0.00 0.85 Normal
a. Calculate the daily cancer risk for a child who weighs 20 kg and who eats an average amount of peanut butter. Please use the average values for the required parameters.
b. Do the same for a 20 kg child who drinks an average amount of apple juice.
NOTE: Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight
c. Calculate the maximum daily cancer risks for peanut butter and apple juice based on the 95th percentiles.
d. Discuss your results briefly.
This is YOUR assignment.
What is your question about this assignment?
To calculate the daily cancer risk, we will use the following formula:
Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight
a) For a child who weighs 20 kg and eats an average amount of peanut butter:
- Intake: 11.38 g/day (average peanut butter intake)
- Concentration: 2.82 μg/kg (average aflatoxin concentration)
- Potency: 17.5 kg-day/mg (aflatoxin potency)
- Body Weight: 20 kg
Substituting these values into the formula:
Daily cancer risk (peanut butter) = 11.38 g/day x 2.82 μg/kg x 17.5 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
b) For a child who weighs 20 kg and drinks an average amount of apple juice:
- Intake: 136.84 g/day (average apple juice intake)
- Concentration: 13.75 μg/kg (average UDMH concentration)
- Potency: 0.49 kg-day/mg (UDMH potency)
- Body Weight: 20 kg
Substituting these values into the formula:
Daily cancer risk (apple juice) = 136.84 g/day x 13.75 μg/kg x 0.49 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
c) To calculate the maximum daily cancer risks based on the 95th percentiles, we will use the corresponding values from the table: 31.86 g/day for peanut butter intake and 430.02 g/day for apple juice intake. The concentrations and potencies remain the same.
Daily cancer risk (peanut butter - 95th percentile) = 31.86 g/day x 2.82 μg/kg x 17.5 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
Daily cancer risk (apple juice - 95th percentile) = 430.02 g/day x 13.75 μg/kg x 0.49 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
d) Based on the calculations, you can discuss the results. Compare the daily cancer risks for the average and maximum intake scenarios. Note any significant differences and discuss the relative risks of eating peanut butter contaminated with aflatoxin versus apple juice contaminated with UDMH. Consider the input data from the table, such as the average, 5th, and 95th percentile values for each variable, to support your discussion.