A research article reports the results of a drug test. This medicine used to reduce vision loss in people suffering from macular degeneration. The article state p = 0,04 section findings.

The following issues are of three different interpretations of this value p. Note which of these three explanations are correct and which are not.

a) Is the probability that the results are as or more extreme than those of the study, if the drug is not effective. (True or False)

b) Is the probability that the drug is not effective. (T/F)

c) Is the probability that the drug is effective.T/F
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I believe that:
a) is False
b) is True
c) Is False.

What do you believe?

P = probability that rejecting the null hypothesis is due solely to chance factors.

What is your null hypothesis?

If Ho = no difference, then I would agree with you.

Hello PsyDAG.

I do not know. The question is given exactly as you see.

I believe that this is tricky. Maybe wants to think that of course the demand of the researchers is the medicine is effective. So the null hypothesis is exactly the opposite (no difference). Do you agree?

Thank you again

The following reference may confirm your assumptions.

http://cjasn.asnjournals.org/content/3/5/1246.full

Dear MathMate,

Thank you for the paper it will be very usefull for me!

As I understand from this paper i was correct?

a) is False
b) is True
c) Is False.

Thank you in advance.

I would agree with your interpretations:

a) False: The statement suggests that the p-value represents the probability of getting results as extreme as the study, assuming the drug is not effective. However, the p-value actually represents the probability of obtaining results as extreme as, or more extreme than, the study's results, assuming the null hypothesis (in this case, no effect of the drug) is true.

b) True: The p-value can provide evidence against the null hypothesis, suggesting that the drug may not be effective. In this case, a p-value of 0.04 suggests that there is a 4% chance of obtaining the observed results (or more extreme results) if the drug has no effect.

c) False: The p-value does not directly inform about the probability of the drug being effective. It only provides evidence against the null hypothesis. While a lower p-value may suggest stronger evidence for the drug's effectiveness, it does not provide a direct probability of the drug being effective.