David Hassenzahl discusses the relative risks of eating peanut butter contaminated with aflatoxin and apple juice contaminated with UDMH, a degradation product of Alar, in the Power Point presentation in the Week Five, Module 5 Conference. The following Table shows his input data.

Variable Units Average 5th %ile 95th %ile Distribution
Peanut butter intake g/day 11.38 2.00 31.86 Lognormal
Apple juice intake g/day 136.84 16.02 430.02 Lognormal
Aflatoxin concentration ug/kg 2.82 1.00 6.5 Lognormal
UDMH concentration ug/kg 13.75 0.5 42.00 Lognormal
Aflatoxin potency kg-day/mg 17.5 4.02 28.33 Normal
UDMH potency kg-day/mg 0.49 0.00 0.85 Normal

a. Calculate the daily cancer risk for a child who weighs 20 kg and who eats an average amount of peanut butter
b. Do the same for a 20 kg child who drinks an average amount of apple juice.

NOTE: Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight

c. Calculate the maximum daily cancer risks for peanut butter and apple juice based on the 95th percentiles.

No Table is shown.

Variable Units Average 5th %ile 95th %ile Distribution

Peanut butter intake g/day 11.38 2.00 31.86 Lognormal
Apple juice intake g/day 136.84 16.02 430.02 Lognormal
Aflatoxin concentration ug/kg 2.82 1.00 6.5 Lognormal
UDMH concentration ug/kg 13.75 0.5 42.00 Lognormal
Aflatoxin potency kg-day/mg 17.5 4.02 28.33 Normal
UDMH potency kg-day/mg 0.49 0.00 0.85 Normal

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To calculate the daily cancer risk, we need to use the formula:

Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight

a. For a child who weighs 20 kg and eats an average amount of peanut butter:
Intake = 11.38 g/day (from the table)
Concentration = 2.82 ug/kg (from the table)
Potency = 17.5 kg-day/mg (from the table)
Body Weight = 20 kg

So, the daily cancer risk for this child would be:
Daily cancer risk = 11.38 g/day x 2.82 ug/kg x 17.5 kg-day/mg / 20 kg

b. For a 20 kg child who drinks an average amount of apple juice:
Intake = 136.84 g/day (from the table)
Concentration = UDMH concentration (from the table)
Potency = UDMH potency (from the table)
Body Weight = 20 kg

So, the daily cancer risk for this child would be:
Daily cancer risk = 136.84 g/day x UDMH concentration x UDMH potency / 20 kg

c. To calculate the maximum daily cancer risks for peanut butter and apple juice based on the 95th percentiles, we will use the same formulas as above, but with the 95th percentile values for intake, concentration, and potency:

For peanut butter:
Intake = 31.86 g/day (95th percentile from the table)
Concentration = 6.5 ug/kg (95th percentile from the table)
Potency = 28.33 kg-day/mg (95th percentile from the table)
Body Weight = 20 kg

So, the maximum daily cancer risk for peanut butter would be:
Daily cancer risk = 31.86 g/day x 6.5 ug/kg x 28.33 kg-day/mg / 20 kg

For apple juice:
Intake = 430.02 g/day (95th percentile from the table)
Concentration = UDMH concentration (95th percentile from the table)
Potency = UDMH potency (95th percentile from the table)
Body Weight = 20 kg

So, the maximum daily cancer risk for apple juice would be:
Daily cancer risk = 430.02 g/day x UDMH concentration x UDMH potency / 20 kg

You can substitute the values from the table into these formulas to calculate the actual values for each case.