One month before a recall election, a poll of 500 Wisconsin voters showed that 46% planned to vote for the Democratic challenger Tom Barrett and 45% planned to vote for Republican Governor Scott Walker. Undecided voters constituted another 9%. The margin of error was 5 percentage points. What conclusion can you draw from this poll?
A. Barrett will win the election.
B. Walker can’t get over 50% of the votes.
C. The race is too close to call.
D. No one will win.
an: C
To draw a conclusion from this poll, we need to consider the margin of error. The margin of error tells us the range within which the true population value is likely to fall.
In this case, the margin of error is 5 percentage points. This means that the actual percentage of voters planning to vote for Tom Barrett could be as low as 41% (46% - 5%) or as high as 51% (46% + 5%). Similarly, the actual percentage of voters planning to vote for Scott Walker could be as low as 40% (45% - 5%) or as high as 50% (45% + 5%).
Since the range for both candidates includes 50%, we cannot definitively say that either candidate is leading. Additionally, the poll accounts for 9% undecided voters, which could have a significant impact on the outcome.
Therefore, the most accurate conclusion we can draw from this poll is that the race is too close to call (option C).