Mike was voted Most Valuable Player for 2 out of 5 seasons. What is the probability that Mike will be Most Valuable Player this year?

I thought the answer would be 40%, but I'm not sure. I wasn't sure how to include this year in with the past 5 years or even if I should.

Thank you again!

This is a faulty question. Past history in this case has no bearing on the future.

http://www.jiskha.com/display.cgi?id=1425765273