Posted by Sarah on .
Air America has a policy of booking as many as 15 persons on an airplane that can seat only 14. (Past studies have revealed that only 86% of the booked passengers actually arrive for the flight.) Find the probability that if Air America books 15 persons, not enough seats will be available. Write only a number as your answer. Round to 4 decimal places.

To Sara: please do not multiple post the same question 
MathMate,
There are people on earth who work with 56kb Internet connections, which means that the 3 seconds that you take to make each of the quintuple posts, it could take up to 34 minutes for others to just to display it.
The Air America problem is a multistep experiment, where success at each step has a probability of 86%.
We assume that the arrival of each person is independent of the others; (which is not exactly true, because the flight may have been booked for members of the same family.)
For all 15 persons to arrive independently for the flight, we calculate the probability by multiplying the probability of each of the 15 events, thus:
P(15)=0.86^15=0.1041
not exactly negligible. 
To Sarah: please do not multiple post the same question 
MathMate,
Sorry for having misspelled your name.