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Build-Rite construction has received favorable publicity from guest appearances on a public TV home improvement program. Public TV programming decisions seem to be unpredictable, so Build –Rite cannot estimate the probability of continued benefits from it relationship with the show. Demand for home improvements next year may be either low or high. But Build-Rite must decide now whether to hire more employees, do nothing, or develop subcontracts with other home improvement contractors. Build-Rite has developed the following payoff table.
Payoffs Demand For Home Improvements
Alternative Low Moderate High
Hire ($250,000) $100,000 $625,000
Subcontract $100,000 $150,000 $415,000
Do nothing $50,000 $80,000 $300,000
(Krajewski, Lee, Ritzman, Larry and Malhotra, Manoj (2007). Operations Management (8th ed.). Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ. Page 42)
What is the decision based on each of the following criteria? Show work in making the decision for each criterion:
c) Criterion of realism with coefficient of realism = 0.7
d) Equally likely
e) Minimax regret