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Probability

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An oil-drilling company knows that it costs $25,000 to sink a test well. If oil is hit, the income for the drilling company will be $355,000. If only natural gas is hit, the income will be $130,000. If nothing is hit, there will be no income. If the probability of hitting oil is 1/40 and if the probability of hitting gas is 1/20, what is the expectation for the drilling company?

  • Probability - ,

    expectation = (1/40)(355000) + (1/20(130000)
    = 15375

    since it costs $25000 just to drill the well, this is not a good investment.

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