I urgently need to check how to rephrase modals expressing possibility/probability etc.

1. I’m sure/certain he didn’t rob the bank. He can't have robbed the bank (only choice)
2. I’m certain/sure he stole the ring from Peter William’s bedroom.
He must have stolen....
3. It is possible that he will be invited to Peter’s wedding. Maybe he will be invited to....
He may be invited to...
4. I’m very unsure if I will pass my driving test. He might not pass
5. He is likely to visit us tonight
He should visit us....
Other books include: He may/might visit us....
Does "be likely" express a possibility or a probability??
It is unlikely that I will play football tomorrow.
I might not play/shouldn't play (possibility or probability)
6. You are not allowed to wear jewellery to school.
You can't wear...../You are not permitted..
7. I didn't succeed in finishing my maths homework.
I couldn't finish...
8. We were compelled/oblidged/forced to surrender. We had to (??) surrender.

1 - 4 = OK

5. He is likely to visit us tonight
He could visit us....
Other books include: He may/might visit us....
Does "be likely" express a possibility or a probability?? (both)
It is unlikely that I will play football tomorrow.
I might not play ...

("should" implies "must" or "ought to")

6 - 7 = OK

8. We were compelled/forced to surrender. We had to surrender.