Posted by **Anonymous** on Friday, October 14, 2011 at 1:06pm.

You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.7. With water it will die with probability 0.6. You are 84 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.

You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it?

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