Posted by **Probability that bottle has flaw!!!!!?** on Saturday, October 1, 2011 at 4:49pm.

A quality-control program at a plastic bottle production line involves

inspecting finished bottles for flaws such as microscopic holes. The proportion of bottles that actually

have such a flaw is only 0.0002. If a bottle has a flaw, the probability is 0.995 that it will fail the

inspection. If a bottle does not have a flaw, the probability is 0.99 that it will pass the inspection (use

Bayes’s Rule).

a. If a bottle fails inspection, what is the probability that it has a flaw?

b. Which of the following is the more correct interpretation of the answer to part(a)?

i. Most bottles that fail inspection do not have a flaw.

ii. Most bottles that pass inspection do have a flaw.

c. If a bottle passes inspection, what is the probability that it does not have a flaw?

d. Which of the following is the more correct interpretation of the answer to part(c)?

i. Most bottles that fail inspection do have a flaw.

ii. Most bottles that pass inspection do not have a flaw.

e. Explain why a small probability in part (a) is not a problem, so long as the probability in part (c)

is large.

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