Posted by **joe** on Wednesday, September 14, 2011 at 11:31pm.

You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.8. With water it will die with probability 0.4. You are 87 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.

You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?

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