Posted by **cmb** on Thursday, December 2, 2010 at 12:33am.

You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.7. With water it will die with probability 0.6. You are 82 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.

You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability that the plant died because neighbor forgot to water it

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