The weather forecaster reports that the probability of rain tomorrow is 10%.

a. Which approach was used to arrive at this number?

1) Analytical (Classical)
2) Relative Frequency
3) Subjective

I would assume relative frequency. Under the specific conditions present, 10% of the time rain occurred.

The approach used to arrive at the probability of rain tomorrow is subjective.

To determine the probability of rain tomorrow, the weather forecaster likely used the Relative Frequency approach. This approach involves calculating the probability based on historical data and observations of previous weather patterns in similar conditions. By analyzing past events and their outcomes, the forecaster can estimate the likelihood of rain occurring tomorrow.

To use the Analytical (Classical) approach, the forecaster would need a complete understanding of all the possible outcomes, such as the number of different weather conditions and the likelihood of each occurring. However, this information may not be available or accurately known in the case of weather forecasting.

The Subjective approach involves personal opinions or judgment, which might be less reliable when it comes to weather forecasting given the need for objective and data-driven predictions. Therefore, the Relative Frequency approach is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of rain, as it provides a more evidence-based estimate.